The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next week’s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.

See the Daily consumer spending tracker (https://jpmm-internal.jpmchase.net/research/open/latest/publication/9002054) for disclaimers and methodology for Chase Card Tracker data.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth. Odds of global recession this year have jumped to 40%. Absent recession and against the backdrop of a sharp projected rise in German fiscal spending, the US’s own policy actions are likely to end this expansion’s period of US exceptionalism. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then sets the foundation for assessing the risks related to the multitude of US policy risks on the horizon.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.

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The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the year—how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the key risks to the outlook. Looking through the range of Trump policy initiatives, the balance of risks looks to be tilting more negative—again, how much so is debatable. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.

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The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard to take too much signal and with fundamentals still solid, we are comfortable with the outlook for healthy global growth this quarter. The risk is more looking forward and how the flood of back-and-forth Trump policies is impacting business decision making.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severely challenged with the confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Such an outturn would not only weigh more heavily on the global outlook but also undermine the US expansion given the centrality of the US’s most important trading partners. Amid a flurry of central bank meetings, we largely got what was expected.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change our key calls. Against this backdrop, the global economy is humming along with news supporting our call for global industry to perk up in the coming months. Among the many central banks meeting next week, the Fed (hold) and ECB (-25bp) will be a reminder of the stark divergence between these two economies. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Monday’s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of sweeping policy changes, the effects of which will take months (or longer) to understand. Still, a likely wave of executive orders will begin a period of busy policy and data tracking. Global industry looks to have perked up at year-end but the surveys remain depressed. Tracking the state of global sentiment as it processes the coming flurry of US actions will be particularly important as a leading indicator.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.

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A number of elements of our high-for-long rate narrative will be tested by data and policy guidance this quarter. We will receive greater clarity on the direction of US policy where we expect the new administration to eschew extremes on trade and immigration policy while moving forward quickly on regulatory relief. Our expectation for a lift in global industry and firming in goods prices is already being challenged by a disappointing global mfg. PMI.  On inflation we do not see a repeat of the past two year’s front-loaded price increases, but look for the persistence of sticky global core CPI gains.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 3 January 2025.

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Global industry is getting a boost from firming final demand. We are bullish for manufacturing in the coming months—to be supported by next week’s expected December reports on US retail sales and G-4 flash PMI readings. Central banks are still easing but the drivers have turned more domestic. Next week’s projected 25bp Fed cut would bring the 2024 easing cycle to 100bp, despite material upside surprises this year to both growth and core inflation forecasts. (The Weekender will return January 3; Happy holidays to all!)

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2024.

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The latest data support our call for resilient, albeit divergent, growth. The PMIs for last month show global GDP tracking a strong, above potential pace with some welcome improvement for global industry. The US and China stand out to the upside, while Europe is the weak link. Despite resilient growth and sticky, elevated inflation, central banks seem inclined to continue their easing cycles.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Nora Szentivanyi

This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week’s flash PMIs will be the first data prints post US election, and we will be closely watching the vibe expressed in the future output components. Manufacturing should indicate caution given trade war concerns, while the broader all-industry measure could show some widening divergence between the US and the rest of the world.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Ahead of the all-important US election, the data tracking at the start of 4Q is mixed but supportive of a resilient expansion. A noisy October US labor report should be faded, but strong 3Q GDP growth and healthy income gains are constructive. Nevertheless, moderating wages gains should help the Fed ease at next week’s meeting while presenting an open mind about December. Elsewhere, we look for a 25bp cut from the BoE next week as well as an announcement of further China stimulus.  

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The JPMorgan conference delivered a consensus around a Goldilocks macro scenario even as participants say US election outcomes look like a coin-toss. The risks of a blue versus red wave, and versus divided government lead to varied outcomes on growth, inflation, and the Fed. All of these are discussed.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial front-loaded China policy supports, which serve to materially raise our current quarter global growth forecast.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The improving US activity data has trimmed the downside tail, reinforcing views for a Goldilocks-type soft-landing. However, with core inflation running at a pace little different from a year-ago (around 3%ar), more respect for a high-for-long scenario is also needed. Not all are in same boat, and Euro area growth weakness is likely to get the ECB to cut rates next week. Enthusiasm for a China fiscal bazooka has built, but we do not see this as likely.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A much better than expected US payroll report, along with a quick end to the port strike, shift the risk distribution away from recession. Whether this adds probability to the Goldilocks outturn or the boil-the-frog scenario we have warned about is still uncertain, but the odds of rates staying higher than previously thought are clearly up. The global goods sector still looks grim, as does European growth. We remain skeptical about the medium run outlook for China even if seeing potential upside to the near-term. 

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A set of divergences in the global economy raise tail risks to the expansion. While we see numerous reasons for a soft-landing, next week’s PMIs and US labor market news are likely to exacerbate the tensions. Despite this, US growth is robust while Europe is held back by a weak Germany. China’s policy shift this week is encouraging only if a signal of more to come. Joe shares pics from his trip to the North Branch Outing Club in Northern Michigan.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto growth over inflation. This points to at least 100bp of Fed cuts by year-end with a start of 50bp later this month. Elsewhere, the cutting cycle has already begun as inflation looks on path to return to target and we look for another 25bp cut from the ECB next week.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Michael Hanson

This podcast was recorded on 6 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Recession risks faded a bit this week as a stronger US consumer and a dip in initial claims combined with a constructive CPI report that gives a green light to Fed easing. At the same time, global sectoral and geographic imbalances abound, as a strong US contrasts with a loss of momentum in Europe and a weak China. A weak manufacturing sector everywhere also keeps downside risks elevated. Next week’s flash PMIs in the DM will be keenly watched for rotational improvements.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 16 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The week started and ended soft. On Monday, the global manufacturing PMI tumbled in July, erasing this year’s gain and pointing to a stall in global industry. On Friday, the July US payroll report added fuel to the concern that the US was slipping into recession. While there is reason to temper the latest news and the fundamental supports for growth remain strong, we see recession risks jumping to near 50%. Whether US weakness, should it appear, can decouple from the rest of the world is an open question.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 2 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A disappointing set of flash PMIs challenge our call for a rotation toward better manufacturing relative to services and toward an improved Europe relative to the US. Noisy signals, solid fundamentals (with another strong US payrolls expected next week), and easing borrowing costs keep us believing that the expansion is still mid-cycle. Fed to be encouraged by further balance in the data but patient--remaining on hold next week.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.