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Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs
2025-03-04 · 15:32
Greg Fuzesi
– guest
@ J.P. Morgan Global Research
,
Nora Szentivanyi
– Senior Global Economist
,
Michael Hanson
– guest
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headline inflation has firmed to a 3.7%ar over the past three months after a slide to 2.6%ar over the prior six months. Tariffs are likely to add to inflation in the near-term, but medium-term inflation pressures should tilt lower due to the associated drags on sentiment. Euro area underlying inflation remains on track to moderate to 2% as weak demand looks to be weighing on corporate pricing power, while declining wage inflation fades cost pressures. US inflation appears moderately more sticky and a recent pop in some measures of inflation expectations point to a more gradual pace of disinflation. This podcast was recorded on March 04, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920790-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925120-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party. |
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Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
2024-09-24 · 12:24
Greg Fuzesi
– guest
@ J.P. Morgan Global Research
,
Nora Szentivanyi
– Senior Global Economist
Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation stepped down to 2.9%oya, helped by lower energy prices, while core inflation moved sideways at 3.1%. The monthly pace of core CPI gains firmed marginally to 0.3%, but remains on track to ease in line with our forecasts for a moderation to 2.8%ar this quarter from a 3.4%ar pace in the first half of the year. While the recent slide in US core inflation stands out, there has been some encouraging progress with respect to services disinflation in a number of other countries too. In this episode we discuss the Euro area’s inflation dynamics in more detail and what it means for the ECB. This podcast was recorded on Sept 24, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4801321-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799070-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4794311-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party. |
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