Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation eased further to 2.7%oya, aided by falling energy prices––a decline that has supported consumer purchasing power. But core inflation is proving to be sticky around 3% after stepping down from 3.4%ar in 1H24. Services inflation globally continues to run above pre-pandemic norms, even as goods prices have returned to their pre-pandemic inflation rate. However, persistent divergences in both domestic demand and supply are now starting to drive greater variation in inflation outcomes. 

This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824594-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial front-loaded China policy supports, which serve to materially raise our current quarter global growth forecast.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Katie, Nicolaie and Steven discuss the latest economic trends in the EM Edge. Inflation for most EM Edge economies, outside of Africa, have converged to their pre-pandemic norms. The direction from here is upward, in our view. While we are not overly concerned yet, we are monitoring risks rising global food prices, increases in global energy prices and a continued hawkish re-pricing of Fed policy that brings EM Edge currencies under pressure.

Speakers Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research  Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research

This podcast was recorded on October 15, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813316-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 20XX JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The improving US activity data has trimmed the downside tail, reinforcing views for a Goldilocks-type soft-landing. However, with core inflation running at a pace little different from a year-ago (around 3%ar), more respect for a high-for-long scenario is also needed. Not all are in same boat, and Euro area growth weakness is likely to get the ECB to cut rates next week. Enthusiasm for a China fiscal bazooka has built, but we do not see this as likely.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024.

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Haibin Zhu and Nora Szentivanyi discuss China’s latest policy easing measures and what to expect in coming weeks and months. Three aspects of the upcoming fiscal announcement will be important to watch: magnitude, composition and forward guidance. We do not expect the October fiscal package to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with only modest direct support for consumers, but additional fiscal easing is likely further down the road. Accommodative fiscal policy is important not only in the near term, but also into 2025 when the Chinese economy may face a series of adverse shocks.

This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813222-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A much better than expected US payroll report, along with a quick end to the port strike, shift the risk distribution away from recession. Whether this adds probability to the Goldilocks outturn or the boil-the-frog scenario we have warned about is still uncertain, but the odds of rates staying higher than previously thought are clearly up. The global goods sector still looks grim, as does European growth. We remain skeptical about the medium run outlook for China even if seeing potential upside to the near-term. 

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024.

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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the Sept jobs report.

This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Growth was relatively strong across the EM Edge economies in 2Q. Nicolaie, Steven and Katie debate the influence that diverging growth risks in US, China and Europe has for growth in the Edge. While the US influence may predominate, fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms and changing trade patterns (among others) enable some differentiation between Edge economies. Differing cyclical conditions in part explain why Fed easing won’t alter most Edge central banks’ reaction functions.

Speakers:

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research

This podcast was recorded on October 1, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803854-0  and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799145-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A set of divergences in the global economy raise tail risks to the expansion. While we see numerous reasons for a soft-landing, next week’s PMIs and US labor market news are likely to exacerbate the tensions. Despite this, US growth is robust while Europe is held back by a weak Germany. China’s policy shift this week is encouraging only if a signal of more to come. Joe shares pics from his trip to the North Branch Outing Club in Northern Michigan.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation stepped down to 2.9%oya, helped by lower energy prices, while core inflation moved sideways at 3.1%. The monthly pace of core CPI gains firmed marginally to 0.3%, but remains on track to ease in line with our forecasts for a moderation to 2.8%ar this quarter from a 3.4%ar pace in the first half of the year. While the recent slide in US core inflation stands out, there has been some encouraging progress with respect to services disinflation in a number of other countries too. In this episode we discuss the Euro area’s inflation dynamics in more detail and what it means for the ECB.

This podcast was recorded on Sept 24, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4801321-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799070-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4794311-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Bruce Kasman and Jay Barry discuss how the Fed met their expectations for a 50bp rate cut as it shifted its assessment of risk while not materially adjusting its growth or inflation forecasts. Markets showed a continued steepening in the US curve but the rise in longer-term yields suggests that this is aligned with greater confidence in the Fed engineering a sustained expansion.

This podcast was recorded on 9/20/2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the Fed will take center stage in a week marked by a number of significant central bank decisions that don’t revolve around a common theme. We anticipate a 50bp rate cut from the FOMC as it responds to a material shift in risk bias. At the same time, we expect the BoE to follow the ECB in guiding toward a cautious rate normalization path while we anticipate the BoJ will continue to emphasize further rate hikes lie ahead. We also see Norges Bank on hold, an easing from SARB, and a tightening from Brazil’s BCB.

This podcast was recorded on 9/13/2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research 

Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research

EM Edge economies have seen improvements in their fundamentals with only limited exceptions. We have also seen better growth and fiscal consolidation in primary balances, mainly in Africa. IMF programs have helped along the way with both reforms and funding. Despite these trends and against a more favorable global backdrop relative to 2022 and 2023, rating changes have been mixed. Katherine Marney, Steven Palacio and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent rating trends across the all regions.

This podcast was recorded on 10 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4778639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto growth over inflation. This points to at least 100bp of Fed cuts by year-end with a start of 50bp later this month. Elsewhere, the cutting cycle has already begun as inflation looks on path to return to target and we look for another 25bp cut from the ECB next week.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Michael Hanson

This podcast was recorded on 6 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.

This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2024. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and  monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia)  reaccelerated close to 4%.  

This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Recession risks faded a bit this week as a stronger US consumer and a dip in initial claims combined with a constructive CPI report that gives a green light to Fed easing. At the same time, global sectoral and geographic imbalances abound, as a strong US contrasts with a loss of momentum in Europe and a weak China. A weak manufacturing sector everywhere also keeps downside risks elevated. Next week’s flash PMIs in the DM will be keenly watched for rotational improvements.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 16 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of disappointing activity data we lowered our full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%––below the government’s target of 5%––and continue to see a further slowdown to 4% in 2025. When activity has faltered in the past authorities tended to increase policy support to keep GDP growth close to the target range. This is becoming increasingly challenging, progressively requiring more policy stimulus to generate the same growth impact. Deflationary pressures have become entrenched amid lopsided policy support that has favored production over consumption, while the time inconsistency of China’s housing strategy has prolonged the most severe downturn in three decades.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4770915-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747455-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748628-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how it has been a volatile week in financial markets, with tension between what we assess to be a modest rise in downside growth risks and a more significant shift in the near-term prospects for Fed easing. Importantly, the Fed is set to ease partly on the back of strong supply-performance reducing labor market pressures, a development not evident in other major economies.

This podcast was recorded on 08/09/2924.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflation in EM Asia ordinarily would call for a reversal of some of the monetary policy tightening of the last few years. Yet policy has been constrained in several cases by low interest-rate differentials versus the US and concerns over financial stability. Against this backdrop, a Fed that cuts more rapidly to neutral opens up much-needed space for EM Asian central banks to respond more fully to domestic growth-inflation dynamics. The scale of the response is likely to be bifurcated across the region. We see greater scope for additional cuts in India, Indonesia, and China. The case is less compelling in Taiwan and Korea because the output gap has closed in the former and  domestic financial stability considerations are weighing on easing in the latter.

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4763678-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4766359-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The week started and ended soft. On Monday, the global manufacturing PMI tumbled in July, erasing this year’s gain and pointing to a stall in global industry. On Friday, the July US payroll report added fuel to the concern that the US was slipping into recession. While there is reason to temper the latest news and the fundamental supports for growth remain strong, we see recession risks jumping to near 50%. Whether US weakness, should it appear, can decouple from the rest of the world is an open question.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 2 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the July jobs report.

Speakers:

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy    

This podcast was recorded on 8.2.24.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A disappointing set of flash PMIs challenge our call for a rotation toward better manufacturing relative to services and toward an improved Europe relative to the US. Noisy signals, solid fundamentals (with another strong US payrolls expected next week), and easing borrowing costs keep us believing that the expansion is still mid-cycle. Fed to be encouraged by further balance in the data but patient--remaining on hold next week.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4749892-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Ravi Balakrishnan, Chief European Economist, and Alexander Wise, from Long-term Strategy discuss a new special report on debt challenges in the Euro area.

This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2024. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725211-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures.  © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.