Did you know that, upon closer inspection, many a statistical test will reveal that "it's just a linear model" (#IJALM)? That wound up being a key point that our go-to statistician, Chelsea Parlett-Pelleriti, made early and often on this episode, which is the next installment in our informally recurring series of shows digging into specific statistical methods. The method for this episode? ANOVA! As a jumping off point to think about how data works—developing intuition about mean and variance (and covariates) while dipping our toes into F-statistics, family-wise error rates (FWER), and even a little Tukey HSD—ANOVA's not too shabby! For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.

Why? Or… y? What is y? Why, it's mx + b! It's the formula for a line, which is just a hop, a skip, and an error term away from the formula for a linear regression! On the one hand, it couldn't be simpler. On the other hand, it's a broad and deep topic. You've got your parameters, your feature engineering, your regularization, the risks of flawed assumptions and multicollinearity and overfitting, the distinction between inference and prediction... and that's just a warm-up! What variables would you expect to be significant in a model aimed at predicting how engaging an episode will be? Presumably, guest quality would top your list! It topped ours, which is why we asked past guest Chelsea Parlett-Pelleriti from Recast to return for an exploration of the topic! Our model crushed it. For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.

How does a Bayesian tell what time it is? She starts with an estimated time as her prior and then makes a video for TikTok. If you've ever made a joke like that and then realized your audience might need a little statistical education in order to appreciate how hilarious it is (or, perhaps, what the probability is that it's hilarious), then this episode is for you. The Chatistician (and the creator of the #statstiktok hashtag), Chelsea Parlett-Pelleriti, joined the show to talk about tactics for making statistics accessible, both to ourselves and to others! Humor and thoughtfulness were both normally distributed throughout the discussion. For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.