Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction.

This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045284-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock. 

This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Vinicius Moreira & Tingting Ge. Despite a slowing in China’s headline GDP growth post-pandemic, Emerging Market (EM) commodity exporters have benefited from their ties with China. China has actively sought to stockpile commodities and relocate its supply chain away from the West towards EMs. China has also more than offset the loss of export market share in the West by increasing its presence in other EM countries. A further rise in US tariffs on China will hurt China growth and that of EM manufacturing exporters. But EM commodity exporters could be buffered if China doubles down on friend-shoring commodity imports. Going forward, China’s growth impact on the rest of EM will likely be determined by the evolution of trade tensions with the US as well as China’s policy response.

This podcast was recorded on 11 December 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817591-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Haibin Zhu, joined by Grace Ng and Tingting Ge, will discuss what the red sweep and tariff war 2.0 risk means for China, and implications on Taiwan and Hong Kong. Two major themes affect our 2025 growth outlook, namely China’s domestic policy shift since late September, and the Trump win in the US presidential election. While we think the odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons, the probability of a significant tariff hike on China imports has increased significantly. This stands in contrast with our previous assumption of no major change in trade policy in 2025 and has significant implications on the Greater China 2025 macro growth and policy outlook.

This podcast was recorded on Nov 22, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4842856-0, and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.