Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above target and we still anticipate tariff-related pressures will push it higher, with the likely peak now in 1Q26.  Outside the US, core inflation has moderated somewhat as goods inflation is not seeing the same tariff-induced bounce. However, core services inflation has yet to fully normalize, and volatile items add to the sticky core picture.

Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist  Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canada Economist

This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5113765-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094754-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110036-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy.

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083938-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential mismeasurement of tech investment in the GDP accounts. 

This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025. 

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Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction.

This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045284-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing.  A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off. 

Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025.

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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0

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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy will be net disinflationary for Europe and see a positive gap opening up between core inflation in the US and the rest of the world.

This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2025.

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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991721-0

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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4993783-0

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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the downside; a pullback in US front-loading demand along with a decoupling of US-China trade should put downward pressure on goods prices as excess supply is redirected elsewhere. Absent a meaningful retaliation, we see core inflation outside the US moderating to 2.5-3%ar over 2H25.

This podcast was recorded on April 30, 2025.

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China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock. 

This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025.

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© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lifting in getting inflation down.  We retain our sticky global core inflation view and see upside risks to our forecast for global core inflation to moderate to below 3%ar in coming quarter. Beneath this sticky inflation perspective, we continue to see scope for greater diversity in inflation outcomes across countries.

This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2025.

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© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headline inflation has firmed to a 3.7%ar over the past three months after a slide to 2.6%ar over the prior six months. Tariffs are likely to add to inflation in the near-term, but medium-term inflation pressures should tilt lower due to the associated drags on sentiment.  Euro area underlying inflation remains on track to moderate to 2% as weak demand looks to be weighing on corporate pricing power, while declining wage inflation fades cost pressures. US inflation appears moderately more sticky and a recent pop in some measures of inflation expectations point to a more gradual pace of disinflation. 

This podcast was recorded on March 04, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920790-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925120-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and Türkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent across countries. Our bias is for a larger Euro area inflation slide vis a vis the US and UK, while EM is likely to remain differentiated. Tariffs add to upside risk and will provide a further test of persistent inflation and psychology.

Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

This podcast was recorded on February 05, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895168-0

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© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evolved in the past month or so. Our 2025 outlook assumes that new tariffs from the Trump administration will be targeted at China.  A clear risk to our baseline view is that increases in US tariffs will be more widespread.  

Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4882648-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885198-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, has been crucial to the region’s resilience in 2024. While these tech tailwinds are likely to sustain, the regional outlook for 2025 is heavily clouded by a US-China Trade War 2.0. In contrast to the last US-China trade war, the rest of the region is more vulnerable this time around because activity is still much below the pre-pandemic path and the shock itself is likely to be more acute (potentially larger increase in tariffs with the transshipment escape-valve closed). Moreover, the policy space to respond – especially on fiscal – is more constrained this time. So the collateral damage on the region, while differentiated across countries, is likely to be larger than commonly presumed.

This podcast was recorded on January 09, 2025.

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Nora Szentivanyi, Vinicius Moreira & Tingting Ge. Despite a slowing in China’s headline GDP growth post-pandemic, Emerging Market (EM) commodity exporters have benefited from their ties with China. China has actively sought to stockpile commodities and relocate its supply chain away from the West towards EMs. China has also more than offset the loss of export market share in the West by increasing its presence in other EM countries. A further rise in US tariffs on China will hurt China growth and that of EM manufacturing exporters. But EM commodity exporters could be buffered if China doubles down on friend-shoring commodity imports. Going forward, China’s growth impact on the rest of EM will likely be determined by the evolution of trade tensions with the US as well as China’s policy response.

This podcast was recorded on 11 December 2024.

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© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflation remained sticky at 3.1% both on a three-month annualized and year-ago basis, while headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9%oya. While the sectoral gap between services and goods is finally narrowing there is considerable country variation with respect to the strength of services inflation. The coming trade war is likely to temper global growth while adding to inflation. The timing and magnitude of the coming US policy shifts remain highly uncertain and should add to the variation in inflation outcomes.

This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852504-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Nora Szentivanyi

This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation eased further to 2.7%oya, aided by falling energy prices––a decline that has supported consumer purchasing power. But core inflation is proving to be sticky around 3% after stepping down from 3.4%ar in 1H24. Services inflation globally continues to run above pre-pandemic norms, even as goods prices have returned to their pre-pandemic inflation rate. However, persistent divergences in both domestic demand and supply are now starting to drive greater variation in inflation outcomes. 

This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824594-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Haibin Zhu and Nora Szentivanyi discuss China’s latest policy easing measures and what to expect in coming weeks and months. Three aspects of the upcoming fiscal announcement will be important to watch: magnitude, composition and forward guidance. We do not expect the October fiscal package to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with only modest direct support for consumers, but additional fiscal easing is likely further down the road. Accommodative fiscal policy is important not only in the near term, but also into 2025 when the Chinese economy may face a series of adverse shocks.

This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813222-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation stepped down to 2.9%oya, helped by lower energy prices, while core inflation moved sideways at 3.1%. The monthly pace of core CPI gains firmed marginally to 0.3%, but remains on track to ease in line with our forecasts for a moderation to 2.8%ar this quarter from a 3.4%ar pace in the first half of the year. While the recent slide in US core inflation stands out, there has been some encouraging progress with respect to services disinflation in a number of other countries too. In this episode we discuss the Euro area’s inflation dynamics in more detail and what it means for the ECB.

This podcast was recorded on Sept 24, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799070-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4794311-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and  monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia)  reaccelerated close to 4%.  

This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of disappointing activity data we lowered our full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%––below the government’s target of 5%––and continue to see a further slowdown to 4% in 2025. When activity has faltered in the past authorities tended to increase policy support to keep GDP growth close to the target range. This is becoming increasingly challenging, progressively requiring more policy stimulus to generate the same growth impact. Deflationary pressures have become entrenched amid lopsided policy support that has favored production over consumption, while the time inconsistency of China’s housing strategy has prolonged the most severe downturn in three decades.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4770915-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747455-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748628-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflation in EM Asia ordinarily would call for a reversal of some of the monetary policy tightening of the last few years. Yet policy has been constrained in several cases by low interest-rate differentials versus the US and concerns over financial stability. Against this backdrop, a Fed that cuts more rapidly to neutral opens up much-needed space for EM Asian central banks to respond more fully to domestic growth-inflation dynamics. The scale of the response is likely to be bifurcated across the region. We see greater scope for additional cuts in India, Indonesia, and China. The case is less compelling in Taiwan and Korea because the output gap has closed in the former and  domestic financial stability considerations are weighing on easing in the latter.

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4763678-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4766359-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4749892-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.