The Inside Economics team records a rare Saturday podcast. They consider the fallout from the just-ended government shutdown on the broader economy and the economic data.  It’s not good, but it ended just before it did serious damage. The team also takes up the Trump administration’s pivot to addressing affordability, including scaling back tariffs, most important for the group, those on pasta and bananas.  And they introduce a new regular segment of the podcast – listener questions.  So, keep them coming. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, joins Inside Economics to discuss a bevy of topics, including today’s belated Consumer Price Index release, the lack of other government data, AI and the labor market, stock market valuations, and the risks to the economy that are top of mind for her. Mark teases a new esoteric vocabulary word but fails to reveal it…stay tuned. Guest: Claudia Sahm – Chief Economist, New Century Advisors For more from Claudia Sahm, check out her Substack here: https://substack.com/@stayathomemacro Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Colleague Matt Colyar joins Cris and Mark on the podcast to discuss the prospects for inflation and the threat posed by subprime consumer credit problems to the banking system and broader economy. They discuss all of this through the prism of concerns raised by clients in their travels this past week: Mark was out West, Matt in Texas, and Cris in Bermuda.   Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistan Director, Economist, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn  

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Mark and Cris are joined by Matt Colyar to break down the latest CPI inflation report, while Jared Franz from the Capital Group explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping the American economy and labor market. We examine the opportunities and challenges of the AI revolution and what it means for workers, businesses, and investors in this rapidly changing economic landscape. Jared Franz is an economist at Capital Group, responsible for covering the United States. He has 19 years of investment industry experience and has been with Capital Group for 10 years. Prior to joining Capital, Jared was head of international macroeconomic research at Hartford Investment Management Company. Before that, he was an international and U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago, a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Northwestern University and attended the U.S. Naval Academy. He is also a member of the Forecasters Club of New York, an elected member of the Conference of Business Economists and a member of the Pacific Council. Jared is based in Los Angeles. Explore more insights from Capital Group’s Jared Franz in the articles below: 4 charts on why the U.S. economy could stay resilient | Capital Group Benjamin Button’s clues for the US economy   Explore the risks and realities shaping the economy in our new webinar, now streaming for free. U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented Uncertainty Watch here: https://events.moodys.com/mc68453-wbn-2025-mau25777-us-macro-outlook-precipice-recession?mkt_tok=OT… Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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It was a week headlined by crucial inflation data. The Inside Economics crew is joined by colleague Matt Colyar to dig into July’s consumer price index. July’s CPI was unsurprising, but that doesn’t mean it was good. The group discusses why markets might have been too cheery about it and what they think inflation looks like in the coming months (see July’s producer price index). Finally, some loquacious responses to a handful of listener questions.  Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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The 2025 U.S. economy leaves no shortage of topics to explore. This week, the Inside Economics crew tries to touch them all. Mark and Cris, joined by Matt Colyar, discuss growing challenges to Fed independence, recent tariff agreements, financial market exuberance, and a U.S. housing market under significant stress. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and offers their latest recession probabilities and expectations for next week’s slew of important data.  Read the full housing research paper here: https://www.economy.com/bringing-the-housing-shortage-into-sharper-focus Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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The specter of stagflation is on the rise.  While the higher tariffs have yet to translate into higher prices, the Inside Economics team and their colleague, inflation-maven Matt Colyar, argue they soon will. And weaker growth isn’t too far behind – the team’s recession probabilities are increasing again. Mass immigrant deportations, and Israel’s bombing of Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices, also point to higher inflation and weaker growth. Just how serious a threat stagflation poses depends on many factors, the least of which is whether the Fed is willing and able to stick to its inflation mandate. Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team is joined by the former chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein. Jared shares his evaluation of what has been a whirlwind few weeks for the global economy. With a healthy dose of humility, the group then debates where things might be headed in the U.S.-China trade war as well as which country they see as possessing more leverage. The group is also joined by Martin Wurm and Matt Colyar to discuss recent financial market volatility and the latest inflation data. Guest: Jared Bernstein, Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe Biden For more from Jared Bernstein, check out his Substack: https://econjared.substack.com/ Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics crew is joined by Matt Colyar to discuss February’s CPI report and a rapidly changing U.S. economic environment. Primarily, the conversation focuses on tariffs and the on-again, off-again chaos coming out of D.C. The group also discusses investors and U.S. trade partners’ increasingly evident fatigue and whether orthodox macroeconomic principals will eventually re-emerge as a guidepost for policymaking.  Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

After congratulating the Philadelphia Eagles on their dominant Super Bowl win, the Inside Economics team breaks down the week’s inflation data. Moody’s Analytics colleague Matt Colyar joins to help unpack the details behind January’s hotter-than-hoped-for CPI and then the group discusses whether their outlooks for 2025 have changed. Predictably, this evolves into a discussion about tariffs. Finally, they play the numbers game. Objectively, Marisa’s number was best. Click here to take the most recent Business Confidence Survey Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

No, we aren’t referring to President Trump’s inauguration.  But we do chat about the implications of President Trump’s economic policies for Europe with Cosimo Pacciani, Head of Research for Poste Italiane and Moody’s Analytics own Gaurav Ganguly, chief EMEA economist.  Inflation and interest rates were also top of mind.  If, after listening to the podcast, you know what we are referring to, let us know. The first person who gets back to us with the correct answer will win a cowbell.    Guests: Cosimo Pacciani - Head of Research for Poste Italiane, Matt Colyar - Assistant Director economics of Moody's Analytics, Guarav Ganguly - Chief EMEA economist, Moody's   Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team weighs this past week’s inflation data and considers what it means for the Fed’s interest rate decision next week and in 2025.  With sticky inflation, a strong(er) economy, easier financial conditions, and looming tariffs and immigrant deportations, more rate cuts next year appear increasingly less likely, and rate hikes even a possibility. Take the survey on Economy.com Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team assesses the inflation statistics, and why there is no going back to the where prices were prior to fallout from the pandemic and Russian war in Ukraine. And while inflation has largely been quelled, President-elect Trump’s tariff, immigration and other policies threaten to fan inflation anew.  There is also the stats game and listener questions.   Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Matt Colyar and Adam “Hurricane” Kamins join the podcast to discuss this week’s inflation data and the economic impact of Hurricane Milton. The team parses the latest CPI report and debates whether inflation is “sticky” or “moderating”.  Adam discusses his work on estimating the economic damage from the recent string of devastating hurricanes. The team also discusses the potential longer-term fallout on housing and migration in storm-prone areas like Florida.   For the paper on the impact of homeowners insurance on housing affordability click here Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Guest: Adam Kamins - Senior Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Is this the best economy ever? Given the big revisions to GDP and the steady stream of other stellar economic data, the Inside Economics team makes the case that it is.  Moderating inflation, full employment, stronger savings rates and steady corporate profits point to an economy that is stronger than consumer confidence suggests. The team also discusses the latest economic proposals from the presidential campaign and a recent opinion piece comparing Mark’s forecasts to those of Punxsutawney Phil.   Editor’s note: Punxsutawney Phil has also been unfairly mischaracterized by the media. https://www.axios.com/2023/01/28/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-spring-winter Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team breaks down the latest inflation data -- August’s consumer price index. They unpack the underlying components, focusing most of their attention on the confounding acceleration in shelter inflation. “Eggflation” makes a return to the podcast as well. Nevertheless, U.S. inflation has cooled considerably, and the Fed is set to start lowering their policy rate at next week’s meeting. What will that mean for U.S. consumers and businesses? Finally, Marisa takes some listener questions and Matt reads some (mostly positive) reviews of the Inside Economics podcast.    Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group’s Global Chief Economist, joins the Inside Economics team to share his views on the economy and discuss his newly published book. He makes the case that macroeconomic threats are intensifying and can no longer be ignored by decisionmakers. He also provides a nifty framework for how to assess the seriousness of these threats and not get caught up in the doom and gloom that often characterize them.   Today's Guest: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak - Global Chief Economist, Boston Consulting Group,  Click here to learn more about Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak Click here for Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak's book   Guest Host: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The team gives their impressions of Thursday night’s Presidential debate (hint: it involves existential dread). Then, the focus switches to the latest inflation data. Matt Colyar joins to give an overview of May’s encouraging PCE deflator report and what it implies for Fed policy. The episode closes with a roundtable discussion about the long and variable lags in which Fed policy effects the economy, and whether that means the central bank should start loosening policy now.   Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Matt and Marisa join Mark, who called in from an undisclosed location, to discuss this week’s CPI report and FOMC meeting on interest rates. They all agree that the CPI numbers were unambiguously positive and that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates this fall. They play the statistics game, made more difficult by the dearth of economic releases so far this week, and take a few listener questions related to inflation/deflation, OER, and the Fed. For a deeper dive on inflation and how it's measured, check out the bonus episode--a replay of a webinar hosted by Mark, Cris and Marisa on inflation and the Fed.   Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

In a rare Saturday morning taping of the podcast, Dante and Matt join Mark (where’s Cris and Marisa?) to disentangle the considerable crosscurrents in the May jobs report.  Surging immigration is complicating interpretation of the numbers. Next week’s all-important report on consumer price inflation was also the fodder of discussion, as was Mark’s Washington Post op-ed arguing the Fed should cut rates.   Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics, Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Mark, Marisa, and Cris are joined by their colleague Matt Colyar as they delve into the resilience of the U.S. economy. Matt kicks off the conversation with a rundown of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and its implications for monetary policy. Following a brief, engaging Stats Game, the team explores the reasons behind the U.S. economy's rapid and robust recovery compared to the rest of the world. The discussion concludes with answers to audience questions, focusing on the implications of quantitative easing/tightening and the predictive power of the yield curve.   Guests: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Economist - Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. For more on Jonthan Smoke Click here

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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The disappointing March report on consumer price inflation is the fodder for this week’s Inside Economics podcast. The team considers just how big of a disappointment it was, and conclude it turns on second and third significant digits. Yes, that’s what it has come to when assessing just when Fed officials will feel sufficiently confident that inflation is headed back to their target and begin to cut rates. Of course, there are threats to the inflation outlook, most immediate being higher oil prices, which the group takes up.   Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Listeners of Inside Economics have been demanding a podcast on the nation’s debt, and now they have it.  At least one side of it. We talk deficits and debt with Paul Sheard, former Chief Economist of S&P Global. To Mark and team’s surprise, Paul explains why he isn’t worried about the nation’s fiscal trajectory. More views on this to come.   For more on Paul Sheard's book: Click Here   Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team is joined by CPI guru and colleague Matt Colyar to discuss the bevy of inflation-related data released this week. First the team dissects the Federal Reserve’s CCAR stress test scenarios and laments the perpetually inconvenient timing of their release. Talk turns to the root causes for the inflation of the past few years and why shelter inflation is so stubborn. The team imagines themselves on the FOMC for a day and what they would do with interest rates going forward.   Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The group dives deep into the jobs report for May. They dissect the cross-currents in the numbers, and consider what the report means for financial markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy. The economic fallout of the legislative deal to end the debt limit drama, including the end of the student loan payment moratorium, are also part of the discussion. And of course there is the statistics game. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.