The 2025 U.S. economy leaves no shortage of topics to explore. This week, the Inside Economics crew tries to touch them all. Mark and Cris, joined by Matt Colyar, discuss growing challenges to Fed independence, recent tariff agreements, financial market exuberance, and a U.S. housing market under significant stress. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and offers their latest recession probabilities and expectations for next week’s slew of important data.  Read the full housing research paper here: https://www.economy.com/bringing-the-housing-shortage-into-sharper-focus Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Automotive economists Jonathan Smoke (Cox Automotive) and Michael Brisson (Moody's Analytics) join Mark and Cris to discuss industry conditions, tariff impacts on production and pricing, and their divergent views on auto credit's future. Inside Economics producer, Sara Rodriguez, makes a special guest appearance to settle the podcast's ongoing chit-chat debate. Read more articles by Jonathan Smoke here Related Research on today's topic: Click here and here Guests: Mike Brisson - director - Economic Research, Jonathan Smoke - Chief Economist & Economic Advisor for Cox Automotive Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.   

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi and Cris deRitis are joined by Ira Goldstein from The Reinvestment Fund, Maggie McCullough from PolicyMap, and Jim Parrott from the Urban Institute to discuss their new study that takes a deep dive into understanding the nature of the decade-long housing shortfall. This housing crisis has driven up house prices and rents, and undermined housing affordability. But despite the heightened political attention on the problem, there remains confusion over its true scale and scope. This team of self-avowed housers dissect the shortage down to the census tract and come to some surprising conclusions. To learn more and access the full research paper: https://www.economy.com/bringing-the-housing-shortage-into-sharper-focus Guest: Ira Goldstein, Senior Advisor at The Reinvestment Fund Guest: Maggie McCullough, CEO and Founder of PolicyMap Guest: Jim Parrott, Nonresident Fellow at the Urban Institute Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee joins Mark and Cris to talk about the economy and monetary policy. He explains that the up and down tariffs and other economic policies have thrown lots of dirt in the air, so to speak, complicating things for the Fed and thus delaying the normalization of interest rates. He also weighs in on the policy response to the financial crisis and the economic repercussions of artificial intelligence. And tune in to hear why he wants to be 80% Paul Volker and 20% Muhammad Ali.   Guest: Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dante joins the Inside Economics crew for an unusual jobs Thursday podcast. The team discusses the disconnect between the positive headlines and market reaction to the June employment report and the weakening undercurrent in the labor market. They also debate whether higher inflation is still looming despite not showing up in the data yet. Marisa steals the show in the stats game with three figures that stump Mark, Cris, and Dante. Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Mark, Marisa, and colleague Adam Kamins are joined by Ivy Zelman to discuss the housing market outlook. Ivy sheds light on a wide variety of topics, including disappointing demand, the persistent drag from mortgage rate lock, and a lack of listings, adding up to a bearish outlook for prices and sales. The group also touches on regional differences, why builders are pulling back, and the effect of policy changes around tariffs and immigration. Along the way, Marisa and Adam learn the answers to a few existential questions, including “Why am I here?” Guest: Ivy Zelman, Executive Vice President of Zelman, a Walker & Dunlop Company Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn    

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Colleagues Chris Lafakis and Steve Cochrane join Inside Economics to discuss how geopolitics is shaping the outlook and the risks to the U.S. and global economies. But first, the team reminisces about Steve’s 32 years as “employee 007” at the company and his upcoming retirement. Steve reveals his secrets for “managing up,” and Mark finds out he’s been managed all these years. The conversation then turns to U.S.-China relations and the risk of an oil price shock stemming from Israel’s attack on Iran last week.    Guest: Chris Lafakis, Director of Climate and Energy Economics, Moody's Analytics, Steve Cochrane, Director, Chief APAC Economist Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, joins Mark, Cris, and Marisa to explore the rapid rise of the private credit market. With global assets surpassing $2 trillion, Samim breaks down the systemic risks posed by this opaque yet fast-growing asset class. The discussion delves into private credit’s role in middle-market lending, private equity, and new markets like infrastructure and real estate, as well as its implications for financial stability and regulation. Access the full paper, Private Credit & Systemic Risk here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2107637A-C535-4AFF-83BC-6CBA1AD1FAB9&app=download Guest: Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The specter of stagflation is on the rise.  While the higher tariffs have yet to translate into higher prices, the Inside Economics team and their colleague, inflation-maven Matt Colyar, argue they soon will. And weaker growth isn’t too far behind – the team’s recession probabilities are increasing again. Mass immigrant deportations, and Israel’s bombing of Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices, also point to higher inflation and weaker growth. Just how serious a threat stagflation poses depends on many factors, the least of which is whether the Fed is willing and able to stick to its inflation mandate. Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Sharon Parrott, President of CBPP joins the Inside Economics team to consider the big package of tax and government spending provisions making its way through the legislative process. She explains why she’s not a fan, from its implications for the nation’s already dire fiscal situation to its hit to programs benefitting lower-income Americans, such as Medicaid and food assistance. Guests: Sharon Parrot - President of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Justin Begley - Economist and U.S. fiscal policy SME, Moody's Analytics    Additional resources from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families' Health Care Costs 2025 Budget Impacts: House Bill Would Cut Assistance for Children, Raise Costs for Families House Republican Reconciliation Bill Would Hard Rural Households, Communities, and Economies   Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Dante joins Mark and Marisa for a rare Cris-free Saturday morning podcast to discuss the May jobs report. Given the report's weakness, the team is equally baffled by the positive news headlines and surging stock market on Friday. The team dissects the large downward revisions to the payroll numbers in recent months and whether this signals a recession ahead. They also debate whether the low unemployment rate is giving a false signal about underlying weakness in the labor market.    Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics crew talks about the latest tariff news, as well as the reconciliation bill making its way through Congress and the long-term macroeconomic consequences of the bill. Mark gives some rules of thumb about the tariff impact on inflation, as well as the debt-to-GDP ratio and long-term bond yields. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and plays the stats game. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Cliff Rossi, Professor of the Practice and Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland, joins the podcast to discuss the future of housing finance and the potential release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government conservatorship. The team also delves into Dr. Rossi's proposal for fixing the homeowners insurance market and explores concerns surrounding private credit. Guest: Clifford Rossi, Professor of the Practice, Director, Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium Executive-in-Residence PhD, Cornell University Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team is joined by our colleagues Adam Kamins and Justin Begley to play the statistics game for nearly the entire podcast. There are lots of good stats, and it’s a nice respite from all the economic drama for the long Memorial Day weekend. Guests: Justin Begley - Economist, Moody's Analytics, Adam Kamins - Senior Director and Head of Regional Economics, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team welcomes back Aaron Klein, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, for his fourth appearance. The episode begins with an analysis of the latest economic indicators, unpacking fresh CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Mark then asks the team to weigh in on how recent tariff announcements have altered their economic forecasts and recession probabilities. Moody's Analytics economist Justin Begley provides a breakdown of the budget reconciliation package moving through Congress. The episode concludes with Aaron's assessment of emerging vulnerabilities and potential flashpoints in the financial system. Guest: Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Will generative artificial intelligence lead to nirvana or dystopia? Great question, which we don’t exactly answer in this week’s podcast, but we do weigh the most critical downstream effects of the technology based on recent research done by urban economists Frank Levy and Scott Abrahams. We assess how GenAI impacts the benefits of a college degree, the nation’s political dynamics, and which metro area economies will win (think Savannah) and lose (think San Francisco). Guests: Frank Levy, Visitor in the Strategy Group of the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, and Scott Abrahams, Professor of Economics at Louisiana State University Read Frank and Scott's recent research on Gen AI here: From San Francisco to Savannah? The Downstream Effects of Generative AI (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4874104) Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Moody’s Analytics colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to recap the April jobs report, along with the potpourri of other economic data released this week. Marisa dives into other labor market data, Cris tackles GDP, and Mark discusses consumer confidence. All along the way, Mark points out the thorns in recent data. The team also provides an update on their recession probabilities.  Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Guest: Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director of Economic Research Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Richard Barkham, Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE, joins the podcast to discuss the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy. Richard is decidedly more sanguine than the podcast hosts. Mark, Cris and Marisa also discuss the economic team’s recent win for Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics. They debate how much of the win can be chalked up to skill, luck, or the Chief Economist. Guest: Richard Barkham – Senior Economic Advisor, CBRE Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

This episode marks our four-year anniversary doing the Inside Economic podcast, and we devote the conversation to responding to listener questions.  We’ve been getting lots of great Qs, ranging from the global trade war and DOGE cuts to immigration and productivity growth.  Keep the questions coming.   Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team is joined by the former chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein. Jared shares his evaluation of what has been a whirlwind few weeks for the global economy. With a healthy dose of humility, the group then debates where things might be headed in the U.S.-China trade war as well as which country they see as possessing more leverage. The group is also joined by Martin Wurm and Matt Colyar to discuss recent financial market volatility and the latest inflation data. Guest: Jared Bernstein, Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe Biden For more from Jared Bernstein, check out his Substack: https://econjared.substack.com/ Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.