Focusing on the game Mafia, this talk explores some common methods relied upon by players to solve the game. Is the first player to reach 3 votes really mafia? Can you really find mafia off voting patterns alone? And when you apply these methods in a game, how accurate are they in finding a wolf? Inspired by a desire to prove players on their homesite that people place too much faith in these methods, examples of how these methods have been applied in past games will be unpacked, and whether these principles should really be relied upon. After all, it is a social deduction game for a reason – statistics can only get you so far.