What will you learn from this book? Do you need to analyze data but feel lost in a sea of numbers? Your guide is here—without the dry, academic jargon. This hands-on, visually rich book introduces key statistical concepts and shows you how to apply them using Excel. Whether you're a data analyst, a business professional, or just someone who wants to make better decisions with data, you'll gain the practical skills needed to extract meaningful insights. From probability and confidence intervals to regression and forecasting, this book makes statistics approachable, relevant, and—even better—understandable. What's so special about this book? If you've read a Head First book before, you know what to expect: a uniquely engaging, brain-friendly approach that helps you truly learn instead of struggling through dense theory. Through clear explanations, hands-on exercises, and interactive visuals, you'll develop the skills to confidently analyze data and make informed decisions. No more guesswork—just real statistical insights at your fingertips.

Leverage the power of graphical models for probabilistic and causal inference to build knowledge-based system applications and to address causal effect queries with observational data for decision aiding and policy making. Key Features Gain a firm understanding of Bayesian networks and structured algorithms for probabilistic inference Acquire a comprehensive understanding of graphical models and their applications in causal inference Gain insights into real-world applications of causal models in multiple domains Enhance your coding skills in R and Python through hands-on examples of causal inference Book Description This is a practical guide that explores the theory and application of Bayesian networks (BN) for probabilistic and causal inference. The book provides step-by-step explanations of graphical models of BN and their structural properties; the causal interpretations of BN and the notion of conditioning by intervention; and the mathematical model of structural equations and the representation in structured causal models (SCM). For probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks, you will learn methods of variable elimination and tree clustering. For causal inference you will learn the computational framework of Pearl's do-calculus for the identification and estimation of causal effects with causal models. In the context of causal inference with observational data, you will be introduced to the potential outcomes framework and explore various classes of meta-learning algorithms that are used to estimate the conditional average treatment effect in causal inference. The book includes practical exercises using R and Python for you to engage in and solidify your understanding of different approaches to probabilistic and causal inference. By the end of this book, you will be able to build and deploy your own causal inference application. You will learn from causal inference sample use cases for diagnosis, epidemiology, social sciences, economics, and finance. What you will learn Representation of knowledge with Bayesian networks Interpretation of conditional independence assumptions Interpretation of causality assumptions in graphical models Probabilistic inference with Bayesian networks Causal effect identification and estimation Machine learning methods for causal inference Coding in R and Python for probabilistic and causal inference Who this book is for This book will serve as a valuable resource for a wide range of professionals including data scientists, software engineers, policy analysts, decision-makers, information technology professionals involved in developing expert systems or knowledge-based applications that deal with uncertainty, as well as researchers across diverse disciplines seeking insights into causal analysis and estimating treatment effects in randomized studies. The book will enable readers to leverage libraries in R and Python and build software prototypes for their own applications.

Statistical methods are a key part of data science, yet few data scientists have formal statistical training. Courses and books on basic statistics rarely cover the topic from a data science perspective. And many data science resources incorporate statistical methods but lack a deeper statistical perspective. If you're familiar with the R or Python programming languages and have some exposure to statistics, this quick reference bridges the gap in an accessible, readable format.

Gain expertise in modern time series forecasting and causal inference in R to solve real-world business problems with reproducible, high-quality code Key Features Explore forecasting and causal inference with practical R examples Build reproducible, high-quality time series workflows using tidyverse and modern R packages Apply models to real-world business scenarios with step-by-step guidance Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook Book Description Modern Time Series Analysis with R is a comprehensive, hands-on guide to mastering the art of time series analysis using the R programming language. Written by leading experts in applied statistics and econometrics, this book helps data scientists, analysts, and developers bridge the gap between traditional statistical theory and practical business applications. Starting with the foundations of R and tidyverse, you’ll explore the core components of time series data, data wrangling, and visualization techniques. The chapters then guide you through key modeling approaches, ranging from classical methods like ARIMA and exponential smoothing to advanced computational techniques, such as machine learning, deep learning, and ensemble forecasting. Beyond forecasting, you’ll discover how time series can be applied to causal inference, anomaly detection, change point analysis, and multiple time series modeling. Practical examples and reproducible code will empower you to assess business problems, choose optimal solutions, and communicate results effectively through dynamic R-based reporting. By the end of this book, you’ll be confident in applying modern time series methods to real-world data, delivering actionable insights for strategic decision-making in business, finance, technology, and beyond. What you will learn Understand core concepts and components of time series data Wrangle and visualize time series with tidyverse and R packages Apply ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and machine learning methods Explore deep learning and ensemble forecasting approaches Conduct causal inference with interrupted time series analysis Detect anomalies, structural changes, and perform change point analysis Analyze multiple time series using hierarchical and grouped models Automate reproducible reporting with RStudio and dynamic documents Who this book is for This book is for data scientists, analysts, and developers who want to master time series analysis using R. It is ideal for professionals in finance, retail, technology, and research, as well as students seeking practical, business-oriented approaches to forecasting and causal inference. Basic knowledge of R is assumed, but no advanced mathematics is required.

Perform time series analysis and forecasting confidently with this Python code bank and reference manual Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook Key Features Explore up-to-date forecasting and anomaly detection techniques using statistical, machine learning, and deep learning algorithms Learn different techniques for evaluating, diagnosing, and optimizing your models Work with a variety of complex data with trends, multiple seasonal patterns, and irregularities Book Description To use time series data to your advantage, you need to be well-versed in data preparation, analysis, and forecasting. This fully updated second edition includes chapters on probabilistic models and signal processing techniques, as well as new content on transformers. Additionally, you will leverage popular libraries and their latest releases covering Pandas, Polars, Sktime, stats models, stats forecast, Darts, and Prophet for time series with new and relevant examples. You'll start by ingesting time series data from various sources and formats, and learn strategies for handling missing data, dealing with time zones and custom business days, and detecting anomalies using intuitive statistical methods. Further, you'll explore forecasting using classical statistical models (Holt-Winters, SARIMA, and VAR). Learn practical techniques for handling non-stationary data, using power transforms, ACF and PACF plots, and decomposing time series data with multiple seasonal patterns. Then we will move into more advanced topics such as building ML and DL models using TensorFlow and PyTorch, and explore probabilistic modeling techniques. In this part, you’ll also learn how to evaluate, compare, and optimize models, making sure that you finish this book well-versed in wrangling data with Python. What you will learn Understand what makes time series data different from other data Apply imputation and interpolation strategies to handle missing data Implement an array of models for univariate and multivariate time series Plot interactive time series visualizations using hvPlot Explore state-space models and the unobserved components model (UCM) Detect anomalies using statistical and machine learning methods Forecast complex time series with multiple seasonal patterns Use conformal prediction for constructing prediction intervals for time series Who this book is for This book is for data analysts, business analysts, data scientists, data engineers, and Python developers who want practical Python recipes for time series analysis and forecasting techniques. Fundamental knowledge of Python programming is a prerequisite. Prior experience working with time series data to solve business problems will also help you to better utilize and apply the different recipes in this book.

EXPLORE THIS INDISPENSABLE AND COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR STUDENTS AND PRACTITIONERS IN A WIDE VARIETY OF DISCIPLINES Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences: Specification, Estimation, and Inference delivers an accessible guide to time series analysis that includes both theory and practice. The coverage spans developments from ARIMA intervention models and generalized least squares to the London School of Economics (LSE) approach and vector autoregression. Designed to break difficult concepts into manageable pieces while offering plenty of examples and exercises, the author demonstrates the use of lag operator algebra throughout to provide a better understanding of dynamic specification and the connections between model specifications that appear to be more different than they are. The book is ideal for those with minimal mathematical experience, intended to follow a course in multiple regression, and includes exercises designed to build general skills such as mathematical expectation calculations to derive means and variances. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: A focus on social science applications and a mix of theory and detailed examples provided throughout An accompanying website with data sets and examples in Stata, SAS and R A simplified unit root testing strategy based on recent developments An examination of various uses and interpretations of lagged dependent variables and the common pitfalls students and researchers face in this area An introduction to LSE methodology such as the COMFAC critique, general-to-specific modeling, and the use of forecasting to evaluate and test models Perfect for students and professional researchers in the political sciences, public policy, sociology, and economics, Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences: Specification, Estimation, and Inference will also earn a place in the libraries of post graduate students and researchers in public health, public administration and policy, and education.

The presentation introduces Smart Alerting, a system that uses machine learning and statistics to automatically detect anomalies in sales and performance data during platform rollouts. It helps identify incidents faster, reduce manual monitoring, and support data-driven decision-making.

Make accurate time series predictions with powerful pretrained foundation models! You don’t need to spend weeks—or even months—coding and training your own models for time series forecasting. Time Series Forecasting Using Foundation Models shows you how to make accurate predictions using flexible pretrained models. In Time Series Forecasting Using Foundation Models you will discover: The inner workings of large time models Zero-shot forecasting on custom datasets Fine-tuning foundation forecasting models Evaluating large time models Time Series Forecasting Using Foundation Models teaches you how to do efficient forecasting using powerful time series models that have already been pretrained on billions of data points. You’ll appreciate the hands-on examples that show you what you can accomplish with these amazing models. Along the way, you’ll learn how time series foundation models work, how to fine-tune them, and how to use them with your own data. About the Technology Time-series forecasting is the art of analyzing historical, time-stamped data to predict future outcomes. Foundational time series models like TimeGPT and Chronos, pre-trained on billions of data points, can now effectively augment or replace painstakingly-built custom time-series models. About the Book Time Series Forecasting Using Foundation Models explores the architecture of large time models and shows you how to use them to generate fast, accurate predictions. You’ll learn to fine-tune time models on your own data, execute zero-shot probabilistic forecasting, point forecasting, and more. You’ll even find out how to reprogram an LLM into a time series forecaster—all following examples that will run on an ordinary laptop. What's Inside How large time models work Zero-shot forecasting on custom datasets Fine-tuning and evaluating foundation models About the Reader For data scientists and machine learning engineers familiar with the basics of time series forecasting theory. Examples in Python. About the Author Marco Peixeiro builds cutting-edge open-source forecasting Python libraries at Nixtla. He is the author of Time Series Forecasting in Python. Quotes Clear and hands-on, featuring both theory and easy-to-follow examples. - Eryk Lewinson, Author of Python for Finance Cookbook Bridges the gap between classical forecasting methods and the new developments in the foundational models. A fantastic resource. - Juan Orduz, PyMC Labs A foundational guide to forecasting’s next chapter. - Tyler Blume, daybreak An immensely practical introduction to forecasting using foundation models. - Stephan Kolassa, SAP Switzerland

Focusing on the game Mafia, this talk explores some common methods relied upon by players to solve the game. Is the first player to reach 3 votes really mafia? Can you really find mafia off voting patterns alone? And when you apply these methods in a game, how accurate are they in finding a wolf? Inspired by a desire to prove players on their homesite that people place too much faith in these methods, examples of how these methods have been applied in past games will be unpacked, and whether these principles should really be relied upon. After all, it is a social deduction game for a reason – statistics can only get you so far.

Put statistics into practice with Python! Data-driven decisions rely on statistics. Statistics Every Programmer Needs introduces the statistical and quantitative methods that will help you go beyond “gut feeling” for tasks like predicting stock prices or assessing quality control, with examples using the rich tools of the Python ecosystem. Statistics Every Programmer Needs will teach you how to: Apply foundational and advanced statistical techniques Build predictive models and simulations Optimize decisions under constraints Interpret and validate results with statistical rigor Implement quantitative methods using Python In this hands-on guide, stats expert Gary Sutton blends the theory behind these statistical techniques with practical Python-based applications, offering structured, reproducible, and defensible methods for tackling complex decisions. Well-annotated and reusable Python code listings illustrate each method, with examples you can follow to practice your new skills. About the Technology Whether you’re analyzing application performance metrics, creating relevant dashboards and reports, or immersing yourself in a numbers-heavy coding project, every programmer needs to know how to turn raw data into actionable insight. Statistics and quantitative analysis are the essential tools every programmer needs to clarify uncertainty, optimize outcomes, and make informed choices. About the Book Statistics Every Programmer Needs teaches you how to apply statistics to the everyday problems you’ll face as a software developer. Each chapter is a new tutorial. You’ll predict ultramarathon times using linear regression, forecast stock prices with time series models, analyze system reliability using Markov chains, and much more. The book emphasizes a balance between theory and hands-on Python implementation, with annotated code and real-world examples to ensure practical understanding and adaptability across industries. What's Inside Probability basics and distributions Random variables Regression Decision trees and random forests Time series analysis Linear programming Monte Carlo and Markov methods and much more About the Reader Examples are in Python. About the Author Gary Sutton is a business intelligence and analytics leader and the author of Statistics Slam Dunk: Statistical analysis with R on real NBA data. Quotes A well-organized tour of the statistical, machine learning and optimization tools every data science programmer needs. - Peter Bruce, Author of Statistics for Data Science and Analytics Turns statistics from a stumbling block into a superpower. Clear, relevant, and written with a coder’s mindset! - Mahima Bansod, LogicMonitor Essential! Stats and modeling with an emphasis on real-world system design. - Anupam Samanta, Google A great blend of theory and practice. - Ariel Andres, Scotia Global Asset Management

Ballistics examines the analytical and computational tools for predicting a weapon’s behavior in terms of pressure, stress, and velocity, demonstrating their applications in ammunition and weapons design. It includes updated and revised equations, end-of-chapter problems, case studies, and practical examples.

This book covers the science of measuring the invisible building blocks of thought processes that are useful for understanding humans, including technology users, media consumers, and consumers of goods and services. It provides: An explanation of what self-report measurement entails for beginners; A clear set of assumptions needed in order for self-report measures to yield valuable information; A mindset that needs to be adopted when using self-report measurement in the contexts of surveys and experiments; Guidance for extracting opinion from social media text content and integrating AI; A roadmap for quantifying the errors associated with self-report measurement.

Time Series Analysis with Spark provides a practical introduction to leveraging Apache Spark and Databricks for time series analysis. You'll learn to prepare, model, and deploy robust and scalable time series solutions for real-world applications. From data preparation to advanced generative AI techniques, this guide prepares you to excel in big data analytics. What this Book will help me do Understand the core concepts and architectures of Apache Spark for time series analysis. Learn to clean, organize, and prepare time series data for big data environments. Gain expertise in choosing, building, and training various time series models tailored to specific projects. Master techniques to scale your models in production using Spark and Databricks. Explore the integration of advanced technologies such as generative AI to enhance predictions and derive insights. Author(s) Yoni Ramaswami, a Senior Solutions Architect at Databricks, has extensive experience in data engineering and AI solutions. With a focus on creating innovative big data and AI strategies across industries, Yoni authored this book to empower professionals to efficiently handle time series data. Yoni's approachable style ensures that both foundational concepts and advanced techniques are accessible to readers. Who is it for? This book is ideal for data engineers, machine learning engineers, data scientists, and analysts interested in enhancing their expertise in time series analysis using Apache Spark and Databricks. Whether you're new to time series or looking to refine your skills, you'll find both foundational insights and advanced practices explained clearly. A basic understanding of Spark is helpful but not required.

"Time Series Forecasting Using Generative AI introduces readers to Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) in time series analysis, offering an essential exploration of cutting-edge forecasting methodologies." The book covers a wide range of topics, starting with an overview of Generative AI, where readers gain insights into the history and fundamentals of Gen AI with a brief introduction to large language models. The subsequent chapter explains practical applications, guiding readers through the implementation of diverse neural network architectures for time series analysis such as Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP), WaveNet, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network (BiTCN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Deep AutoRegressive(DeepAR), and Neural Basis Expansion Analysis(NBEATS) using modern tools. Building on this foundation, the book introduces the power of Transformer architecture, exploring its variants such as Vanilla Transformers, Inverted Transformer (iTransformer), DLinear, NLinear, and Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST). Finally, The book delves into foundation models such as Time-LLM, Chronos, TimeGPT, Moirai, and TimesFM enabling readers to implement sophisticated forecasting models tailored to their specific needs. This book empowers readers with the knowledge and skills needed to leverage Gen AI for accurate and efficient time series forecasting. By providing a detailed exploration of advanced forecasting models and methodologies, this book enables practitioners to make informed decisions and drive business growth through data-driven insights. ● Understand the core history and applications of Gen AI and its potential to revolutionize time series forecasting. ● Learn to implement different neural network architectures such as MLP, WaveNet, TCN, BiTCN, RNN, LSTM, DeepAR, and NBEATS for time series forecasting. ● Discover the potential of Transformer architecture and its variants, such as Vanilla Transformers, iTransformer, DLinear, NLinear, and PatchTST, for time series forecasting. ● Explore complex foundation models like Time-LLM, Chronos, TimeGPT, Moirai, and TimesFM. ● Gain practical knowledge on how to apply Gen AI techniques to real-world time series forecasting challenges and make data-driven decisions. Who this book is for: Data Scientists, Machine learning engineers, Business Aanalysts, Statisticians, Economists, Financial Analysts, Operations Research Analysts, Data Analysts, Students.

Statistical quantitative methods are vital for financial valuation models and benchmarking machine learning models in finance. This book explores the theoretical foundations of statistical models, from ordinary least squares (OLS) to the generalized method of moments (GMM) used in econometrics. It enriches your understanding through practical examples drawn from applied finance, demonstrating the real-world applications of these concepts. Additionally, the book delves into non-linear methods and Bayesian approaches, which are becoming increasingly popular among practitioners thanks to advancements in computational resources. By mastering these topics, you will be equipped to build foundational models crucial for applied data science, a skill highly sought after by software engineering and asset management firms. The book also offers valuable insights into quantitative portfolio management, showcasing how traditional data science tools can be enhanced with machine learning models. These enhancements are illustrated through real-world examples from finance and econometrics, accompanied by Python code. This practical approach ensures that you can apply what you learn, gaining proficiency in the statsmodels library and becoming adept at designing, implementing, and calibrating your models. By understanding and applying these statistical models, you enhance your data science skills and effectively tackle financial challenges. What You Will Learn Understand the fundamentals of linear regression and its applications in financial data analysis and prediction Apply generalized linear models for handling various types of data distributions and enhancing model flexibility Gain insights into regime switching models to capture different market conditions and improve financial forecasting Benchmark machine learning models against traditional statistical methods to ensure robustness and reliability in financial applications Who This Book Is For Data scientists, machine learning engineers, finance professionals, and software engineers

Account for uncertainties and optimize decision-making with this thorough exposition Decision theory is a body of thought and research seeking to apply a mathematical-logical framework to assessing probability and optimizing decision-making. It has developed robust tools for addressing all major challenges to decision making. Yet the number of variables and uncertainties affecting each decision outcome, many of them beyond the decider’s control, mean that decision-making is far from a ‘solved problem’. The tools created by decision theory remain to be refined and applied to decisions in which uncertainties are prominent. Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions introduces a theoretically-grounded methodology for optimizing decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Beginning with an overview of the basic elements of probability theory and methods for modeling continuous variates, it proceeds to survey the mathematics of both continuous and discrete models, supporting each with key examples. The result is a crucial window into the complex but enormously rewarding world of decision theory. Readers of Probablistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions will also find: Extended case studies supported with real-world data Mini-projects running through multiple chapters to illustrate different stages of the decision-making process End of chapter exercises designed to facilitate student learning Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions is ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the sciences and engineering, as well as predictive analytics and decision analytics professionals.

Learn how to calculate your chances with easy-to-understand explanations of probability Probability—the likelihood or chance of an event occurring—is an important branch of mathematics used in business and economics, finance, engineering, physics, and beyond. We see probability at work every day in areas such as weather forecasting, investing, and sports betting. Packed with real-life examples and mathematical problems with thorough explanations, Probability For Dummies helps students, professionals, and the everyday reader learn the basics. Topics include set theory, counting, permutations and combinations, random variables, conditional probability, joint distributions, conditional expectations, and probability modeling. Pass your probability class and play your cards right, with this accessible Dummies guide. Understand how probability impacts daily life Discover what counting rules are and how to use them Practice probability concepts with sample problems and explanations Get clear explanations of all the topics in your probability or statistics class Probability For Dummies is the perfect Dummies guide for college students, amateur and professional gamblers, investors, insurance professionals, and anyone preparing for the actuarial exam.

This book focuses on several skew-normal mixed effects models, and systematically explores the statistical inference theories, methods, and applications of parameters of interest. This book is of academic value, since it helps to establish a series of statistical inference theories and methods for skew-normal mixed effects models.

Fuzzy Methods for Assessment and Decision Making presents the assessment of learning and problem-solving skills with qualitative grades. These methods are outcomes of the author’s research work on the subject for more than 20 years. In particular, a hybrid assessment model uses the Center of Gravity (COG) defuzzification technique, closed real intervals (grey numbers), neutrosophic sets, and soft sets as tools. The book starts with the basic mathematical background that is needed for an understanding of its contents. The Rectangular Fuzzy Assessment Model (RFAM) of Subbotin and Voskoglou is presented next, the outcomes of which are compared to those of the GPA index. The book presents innovative fuzzy assessment methods, enabling readers to assess the mean and quality performance of learning or problem-solving skills of a group of students when qualitative (linguistic) grades are used for this purpose. In the case of using linguistic grades for the assessment of a group’s skills, the classical method of calculating the mean value of the (numerical) grades cannot be applied. Also, no safe conclusions can be obtained on comparing the quality performance of two groups when the values of their GPA index are equal. Presents innovative, fuzzy assessment methods to enable readers to assess the mean and quality performance of learning Discusses fuzzy logic and techniques for decision-making in all domains Includes applications of fuzzy decision-making as a hybrid model using soft sets, grey numbers, and neutrosophic sets

This book is a collective work by a number of leading scientists, analysts, engineers, mathematicians and statisticians who have been working at the forefront of data analysis and related applications, arising from data science, operations research, engineering, machine learning or statistics. The chapters of this collaborative work represent a cross-section of current research interests in the above scientific areas. The collected material has been divided into appropriate sections to provide the reader with both theoretical and applied information on data analysis methods, models and techniques, along with appropriate applications. Data Analysis and Related Applications 4 investigates a number of different topics in the areas mentioned above, touching on statistical analysis, stochastic processes, estimation methods, algorithms, distributions and networks, among others.