Ben Harris, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, summarizes the latest proposal for raising the debt ceiling. An acceptable deal seems to be within reach but remains politically uncertain even as the x-date draws near.  What are the alternatives if no deal is reached?  And what could be the consequences for bondholders, Social Security recipients, and other stakeholders?  Ben joins Mark and Cris in a round of the Inside Economics Statistics Game and provides his views on the future of retirement financing. For more on Ben Harris, click here For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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Richard Branch, Chief Economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, joins the podcast to share his insights on all things construction. Construction is the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy, yet despite the near unprecedented tightening in monetary policy, it is holding its’ own.  What gives?  The group also digs deep into the different parts of the construction sector, from the struggling office market to the surge in public infrastructure. For more on Richard Branch, click here. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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Mark and team do a deep dive into the inflation numbers and consider prospects that inflation will continue to moderate. After the statistics game, they turn to their latest research considering the economic fallout of what could happen if lawmakers fail to increase the debt limit in time. It isn’t pretty. For more on the debt limit breach scenarios, click here. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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Another jobs Friday, another strong jobs report. Dante DeAntonio joins the crew to break down the employment numbers and what they mean for the near-term outlook. The team also discusses the recent banking crisis, the looming debt limit x-date, and the most likely outcomes for both. And is someone using ChatGPT to cheat at the statistics game? For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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Falling house prices and recent housing policy actions taken by the FHA and FHFA to address housing affordability are top of mind this week. Edward Pinto, Senior Fellow and the Director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute joins to discuss. The team also provides their thoughts on weaker-than-expected GDP data. Is the weak GDP # good or bad for the economy? Marisa dominates the statistics game.  For more on Edward Pinto, click here For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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John Toohig, head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, joins Mark, Cris and Marisa to discuss the fallout of the banking crisis on lending standards, credit growth and the economy. The fallout so far seems manageable, but... For more on John Toohig, click here or follow him on LinkedIn or Twitter.   If you would like to learn more about upcoming Moody’s Analytics & Raymond James in Conversation events click here For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Cox Automotive and colleague Mike Brisson join Mark and Cris to discuss what’s going on in the vehicle market. After a rundown on this week’s inflation stats we discuss prospects for vehicle prices, sales, production, and the implications of tighter underwriting and weaker credit quality in the auto loan market. We also take up the tough new emission standards and what they mean for EV adoption. Full episode transcript For more on Jonathan Smoke,  click here. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, joins the podcast. She gives us a rundown on the economy, including her thoughts on the job market and inflation, and the hard work of incorporating climate risk into the outlook for the economy and federal budget. For more information on Heather Boushey’s work with the Council of Economic Advisers click here or follow her on Twitter at @HBoushey46.  Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins us for the March release of the US employment report. Down the strike zone.  In the middle of the uprights. Down the fairway. Sticking to script.  All apt descriptions of the job market in the month of March. But this is all before the fallout of the banking crisis has become evident. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs, join Mark, Cris and Marisa to cut through the uncertainty over the banking crisis and China’s prospects. The worst of the banking crisis appears to be over, but China’s economic problems are only beginning. For more about Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani click here For more on Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group 2023 Outlook click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG returns to discuss fragilities in the financial system and the impact on credit availability and the economy. She shares her view that a meaningful recession is dead ahead. We also discuss the Fed’s meeting earlier this week and their decision to not pause rates given the banking system turmoil. For more on Diane Swonk, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Mark and Marisa welcome third time returning guest Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute to discuss the recent bank failures. They converse and debate about how things went so badly off the rails, the government’s response and what could have been done differently, and the implications for the Fed’s interest rate decision next week. For more on Aaron Klein, click here. For the full transcript, click here. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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It’s another Jobs’ Friday and colleague Dante DeAntonio is here to discuss February’s employment report. Wage growth is moderating and the unemployment rate ticked up, but labor supply among prime age workers reached a post-pandemic high--is that enough evidence to say we are at full employment? Also on the agenda is discussing the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the 2nd largest bank collapse in U.S. History. We are already seeing the disruption in financial markets but what does it mean for the broader economy? For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight 

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Colleagues Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse join the podcast to analyze the state of American consumers and household balance sheets. Then Mark, Cris and Marisa answer some listener questions. For the full transcript click here To learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Duke finance professor Cam Harvey, the father of the yield curve as a prescient predictor of future recession, weighs in on what the curve is saying about recession in the coming year.  You will be surprised.  Mark and Cris were. Full episode transcript here For more on Cam Harvey, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

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Bill Spriggs, Chief Economist of AFL-CIO, joins the podcast and shares his views that we need to be patient on inflation, it's not the result of an overly tight labor market but to temporary forces, and thus does not require aggressive Fed rate hikes. He also dissects President Biden's industrial policy. Full episode transcript here For more on Bill Spriggs, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

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Mark, Cris, and Marisa answer questions from their recent U.S. Economic Outlook webinar where they discussed that the economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat, but the Moody's Analytics baseline forecast-the most-likely outlook-holds that the economy will avoid a downturn. Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

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Colleague, Bernard Yaros joins the podcast to help unpack the January CPI Report (which just happened to be released on Valentine's Day) and discuss their biggest inflation concerns, including Marisa's shockingly high gas bill. Bernard gives a rundown of the U.S. Treasury outlook with regards to the debt limit. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director at Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the housing market, from the current housing recession to the outlook for homeownership. Go Eagles! Full Episode Transcript For more on Chris Herbert, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight  

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Colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast for another round of Job's Friday. The group dissects the January report, which included a shockingly large increase in jobs and a 53-year low unemployment rate. Everyone's probability of recession in the next 12-18 months appear to be trending downward. Including Cris! Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

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Mark and Cris welcome Matthew Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, and colleague Gaurav Ganguly, to discuss climate change and Matthew's optimistic view on adaptation to global temperature rise. Full Episode Transcript For more from Matthew Kahn follow him on twitter: @mattkahn1966 Recommended Reads: Adapting to Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation Climatopolis What will Climate Change Cost You Climatopolis Revisited Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight  

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The Q4 GDP Report has been released and Mark, Cris, and Marisa analyze the weirdness surrounding the data. Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, joins the podcast to give a European perspective and Mark continues his domination in the statistics game. Full episode transcript To learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

We welcome Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School to discuss what could potentially be a catastrophic default of the national debt. We'll get into President Biden's economic policies, inflation, and recession over the next 12-18 months. Jason came to play with some humor, positivity, and a great stat. Full episode transcript To learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here.  Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Mark, Cris, and Marisa are joined by David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings, to dissect the CPI report, and discuss Fed policy, prospects for recession, and the looming threat of a debt limit breach. Full episode transcript. Come join us at the Moody’s Analytics Summit, March 5th-7th at the Phoenician in Scottsdale Arizona. To learn more & register, click here:  Moody's Analytics Summit 2023.  Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

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It's job's Friday and Mark argues the labor market is cooling off according to script. Colleagues Dante DeAntonio and Marisa DiNatale provide the details. And Cris fine-tunes his definition of the best way to describe the economy's performance in the year ahead - "Slowcession". Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.    To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.