A unique, in-depth guide to options pricing and valuing their greeks, along with a four dimensional approach towards the impact of changing market circumstances on options How to Calculate Options Prices and Their Greeks is the only book of its kind, showing you how to value options and the greeks according to the Black Scholes model but also how to do this without consulting a model. You'll build a solid understanding of options and hedging strategies as you explore the concepts of probability, volatility, and put call parity, then move into more advanced topics in combination with a four-dimensional approach of the change of the P&L of an option portfolio in relation to strike, underlying, volatility, and time to maturity. This informative guide fully explains the distribution of first and second order Greeks along the whole range wherein an option has optionality, and delves into trading strategies, including spreads, straddles, strangles, butterflies, kurtosis, vega-convexity, and more. Charts and tables illustrate how specific positions in a Greek evolve in relation to its parameters, and digital ancillaries allow you to see 3D representations using your own parameters and volumes. The Black and Scholes model is the most widely used option model, appreciated for its simplicity and ability to generate a fair value for options pricing in all kinds of markets. This book shows you the ins and outs of the model, giving you the practical understanding you need for setting up and managing an option strategy. Understand the Greeks, and how they make or break a strategy See how the Greeks change with time, volatility, and underlying Explore various trading strategies Implement options positions, and more Representations of option payoffs are too often based on a simple two-dimensional approach consisting of P&L versus underlying at expiry. This is misleading, as the Greeks can make a world of difference over the lifetime of a strategy. How to Calculate Options Prices and Their Greeks is a comprehensive, in-depth guide to a thorough and more effective understanding of options, their Greeks, and (hedging) option strategies.

This book guides you through an enjoyable journey, step by step, into the future. A team of fictional characters is introduced to share their learning and working experiences with the readers. In the beginning of the book, you will take the first step by learning the most basic models for one-period forecasts based on past performance of a market. You will also learn how to evaluate your newly built models. Next, you will progress further into intermediate-level models, including multi-period forecasts based on past performance of a market or based on an external factor. It also introduces interval forecasting, which allows you to obtain a range of forecast values instead of a single value in the future. In the second half, you will familiarize yourself with advanced models that provide multi-period forecasts based on multiple internal or external factors. Toward the end, you will learn several applied models in business and economics that will facilitate you with practical applications related to real life situations. The  last chapter summarizes all models introduced in this book and provides a table of references for finding the most important concepts, tables, and figures in the book so that you can recall every step of your adventure.

Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: , named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Provides insights from Maury Harris Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. . Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. —including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future. Brings to life Harris's own experiences

Time series data is of growing importance, especially with the rapid expansion of the Internet of Things. This concise guide shows you effective ways to collect, persist, and access large-scale time series data for analysis. You’ll explore the theory behind time series databases and learn practical methods for implementing them. Authors Ted Dunning and Ellen Friedman provide a detailed examination of open source tools such as OpenTSDB and new modifications that greatly speed up data ingestion.

This book presents an introduction to the problems and strategies for modeling age, period, and cohort (APC) effects for aggregate-level data. These strategies include constrained estimation, the use of age and/or period and/or cohort characteristics, estimable functions, variance decomposition and a new technique called the s-constraint approach.

Written at a readily accessible level, Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R emphasizes the mathematical importance of collaborative analysis of data used to collect increments of time or space. Balancing a theoretical and practical approach to analyzing data within the context of serial correlation, the book presents a coherent and systematic regression-based approach to model selection. The book illustrates these principles of model selection and model building through the use of information criteria, cross validation, hypothesis tests, and confidence intervals. Focusing on frequency- and time-domain and trigonometric regression as the primary themes, the book also includes modern topical coverage on Fourier series and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). In addition, Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R also features: Real-world examples to provide readers with practical hands-on experience Multiple R software subroutines employed with graphical displays Numerous exercise sets intended to support readers understanding of the core concepts Specific chapters devoted to the analysis of the Wolf sunspot number data and the Vostok ice core data sets

A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forces that shape markets There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a great part in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, which conventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain. However, these forces, sometimes labeled 'animal spirits' or 'irrational exuberance, have remained elusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movements provides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit from changes in human investment behaviour based on the workings of the collective unconscious. Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influential ideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor's perceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. The Mystery of Market Movements provides; A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes based on Carl Jung's theories and empirical case studies that highlights and assesses the influences of the collective unconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists For the first time being able to objectively measure the impact of archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view to provide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. This is done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop a measurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of the unconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism, drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowing for quantification into time series The book is supplemented with an online resource that presents continuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictive capabilities to major financial indexes Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behind their own financial decisions. This book explains why psychological drivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investment behaviour but also political, cultural and social trends. Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curve and profit from market tendencies that more traditional methods completely overlook.

A step-by-step introduction to modeling, training, and forecasting using wavelet networks Wavelet Neural Networks: With Applications in Financial Engineering, Chaos, and Classification presents the statistical model identification framework that is needed to successfully apply wavelet networks as well as extensive comparisons of alternate methods. Providing a concise and rigorous treatment for constructing optimal wavelet networks, the book links mathematical aspects of wavelet network construction to statistical modeling and forecasting applications in areas such as finance, chaos, and classification. The authors ensure that readers obtain a complete understanding of model identification by providing in-depth coverage of both model selection and variable significance testing. Featuring an accessible approach with introductory coverage of the basic principles of wavelet analysis, Wavelet Neural Networks: With Applications in Financial Engineering, Chaos, and Classification also includes: Methods that can be easily implemented or adapted by researchers, academics, and professionals in identification and modeling for complex nonlinear systems and artificial intelligence Multiple examples and thoroughly explained procedures with numerous applications ranging from financial modeling and financial engineering, time series prediction and construction of confidence and prediction intervals, and classification and chaotic time series prediction An extensive introduction to neural networks that begins with regression models and builds to more complex frameworks Coverage of both the variable selection algorithm and the model selection algorithm for wavelet networks in addition to methods for constructing confidence and prediction intervals Ideal as a textbook for MBA and graduate-level courses in applied neural network modeling, artificial intelligence, advanced data analysis, time series, and forecasting in financial engineering, the book is also useful as a supplement for courses in informatics, identification and modeling for complex nonlinear systems, and computational finance. In addition, the book serves as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of mathematical modeling, engineering, artificial intelligence, decision science, neural networks, and finance and economics.

Code and Methods for Creating High-Quality Data GraphicsA data graphic is not only a static image, but it also tells a story about the data. It activates cognitive processes that are able to detect patterns and discover information not readily available with the raw data. This is particularly true for time series, spatial, and space-time datasets.F

Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

This new business analytics case study challenges readers to forecast donations, plan budgets, and manage cash flow for a religious institution suffering rapidly falling contributions. Crystallizing realistic analytical challenges faced by non-profit and for-profit organizations of all kinds, it exposes readers to the entire decision-making process, providing opportunities to perform analyses, interpret output, and recommend the best course of action. Author: Matthew J. Drake, Duquesne University.

This new business analytics case study challenges readers to project trends and plan capacity for a fast-growing craft beer operation, so it can make the best possible decisions about expensive investments in brewing capacity. Crystallizing realistic analytical challenges faced by companies in many industries and markets, it exposes readers to the entire decision-making process, providing opportunities to perform analyses, interpret output, and recommend the best course of action. Author: Eric Huggins, Fort Lewis College.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts. Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecasts Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.

An up-to-date look at point and figure charting from one of the foremost authorities in the field If you're looking for an investment approach that has stood the test of time—during both bull and bear markets—and is easy enough to learn, whether you're an expert or aspiring investor, then Point and Figure Charting, Fourth Edition is the book for you. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, this practical guide will help you grow your assets in any market. In this reliable resource, the world's top point and figure charting expert, Tom Dorsey returns to explain how traders and investors alike can use this classic technique—borne out of the irrefutable laws of supply and demand—to identify and capitalize on market trends. Describes, step-by-step, how to create, maintain, and interpret your own point and figure charts with regard to markets, sectors, and individual securities Explains how to use other indicators, including moving averages, advance-decline lines, and relative strength to augment point and figure analysis Reveals how to use this approach to track and forecast market prices and develop an overall investment strategy Skillfully explains how to use point and figure analysis to evaluate the strength of international markets and rotate exposure from country to country Today's investment arena is filled with a variety of strategies that never seem to deliver on what they promise. But there is one approach to investment analysis that has proven itself in all types of markets, and it's found right here in Point and Figure Charting, Fourth Edition.

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.

Fudenberg and Tirole use the game-theoretic issues of information, commitment and timing to provide a realistic approach to oligopoly.

Based on forty years of experience and research, this book provides guidance on forecasting for strategic decision making. It includes methodology, tools, and models. It also explains how to apply sanity checks to existing forecasts to rank project valuations, identify project risks, and select the higher value creation projects. The author discusses how to assess the feasibility of large projects, analyze forecasting models to determine controllable levers, and create the conditions needed for forecasts to materialize.