Cover all the machine learning techniques relevant for forecasting problems, ranging from univariate and multivariate time series to supervised learning, to state-of-the-art deep forecasting models such as LSTMs, recurrent neural networks, Facebook’s open-source Prophet model, and Amazon’s DeepAR model. Rather than focus on a specific set of models, this book presents an exhaustive overview of all the techniques relevant to practitioners of forecasting. It begins by explaining the different categories of models that are relevant for forecasting in a high-level language. Next, it covers univariate and multivariate time series models followed by advanced machine learning and deep learning models. It concludes with reflections on model selection such as benchmark scores vs. understandability of models vs. compute time, and automated retraining and updating of models. Each of the models presented in this book is covered in depth, with an intuitive simple explanation ofthe model, a mathematical transcription of the idea, and Python code that applies the model to an example data set. Reading this book will add a competitive edge to your current forecasting skillset. The book is also adapted to those who have recently started working on forecasting tasks and are looking for an exhaustive book that allows them to start with traditional models and gradually move into more and more advanced models. What You Will Learn Carry out forecasting with Python Mathematically and intuitively understand traditional forecasting models and state-of-the-art machine learning techniques Gain the basics of forecasting and machine learning, including evaluation of models, cross-validation, and back testing Select the right model for the right use case Who This Book Is For The advanced nature of the later chapters makes the book relevant for appliedexperts working in the domain of forecasting, as the models covered have been published only recently. Experts working in the domain will want to update their skills as traditional models are regularly being outperformed by newer models.

QUANTILE REGRESSION A thorough presentation of Quantile Regression designed to help readers obtain richer information from data analyses The conditional least-square or mean-regression (MR) analysis is the quantitative research method used to model and analyze the relationships between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables, where each equation estimation of a regression can give only a single regression function or fitted values variable. As an advanced mean regression analysis, each estimation equation of the mean-regression can be used directly to estimate the conditional quantile regression (QR), which can quickly present the statistical results of a set nine QR(τ)s for τ(tau)s from 0.1 up to 0.9 to predict detail distribution of the response or criterion variable. QR is an important analytical tool in many disciplines such as statistics, econometrics, ecology, healthcare, and engineering. Quantile Regression: Applications on Experimental and Cross Section Data Using EViews provides examples of statistical results of various QR analyses based on experimental and cross section data of a variety of regression models. The author covers the applications of one-way, two-way, and n-way ANOVA quantile regressions, QRs with multi numerical predictors, heterogeneous QRs, and latent variables QRs, amongst others. Throughout the text, readers learn how to develop the best possible quantile regressions and how to conduct more advanced analysis using methods such as the quantile process, the Wald test, the redundant variables test, residual analysis, the stability test, and the omitted variables test. This rigorous volume: Describes how QR can provide a more detailed picture of the relationships between independent variables and the quantiles of the criterion variable, by using the least-square regression Presents the applications of the test for any quantile of any numerical response or ­criterion variable Explores relationship of QR with heterogeneity: how an independent variable affects a dependent variable Offers expert guidance on forecasting and how to draw the best conclusions from the results obtained Provides a step-by-step estimation method and guide to enable readers to conduct QR analysis using their own data sets Includes a detailed comparison of conditional QR and conditional mean regression Quantile Regression: Applications on Experimental and Cross Section Data Using EViews is a highly useful resource for students and lecturers in statistics, data analysis, econometrics, engineering, ecology, and healthcare, particularly those specializing in regression and quantitative data analysis.

INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” — Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” — Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” — Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Master advanced topics in the analysis of large, dynamically dependent datasets with this insightful resource Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data delivers a comprehensive presentation of the statistical and machine learning methods useful for analyzing and forecasting large and dynamically dependent data sets. The book presents automatic procedures for modelling and forecasting large sets of time series data. Beginning with some visualization tools, the book discusses procedures and methods for finding outliers, clusters, and other types of heterogeneity in big dependent data. It then introduces various dimension reduction methods, including regularization and factor models such as regularized Lasso in the presence of dynamical dependence and dynamic factor models. The book also covers other forecasting procedures, including index models, partial least squares, boosting, and now-casting. It further presents machine-learning methods, including neural network, deep learning, classification and regression trees and random forests. Finally, procedures for modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal dependent data are also presented. Throughout the book, the advantages and disadvantages of the methods discussed are given. The book uses real-world examples to demonstrate applications, including use of many R packages. Finally, an R package associated with the book is available to assist readers in reproducing the analyses of examples and to facilitate real applications. Analysis of Big Dependent Data includes a wide variety of topics for modeling and understanding big dependent data, like: New ways to plot large sets of time series An automatic procedure to build univariate ARMA models for individual components of a large data set Powerful outlier detection procedures for large sets of related time series New methods for finding the number of clusters of time series and discrimination methods , including vector support machines, for time series Broad coverage of dynamic factor models including new representations and estimation methods for generalized dynamic factor models Discussion on the usefulness of lasso with time series and an evaluation of several machine learning procedure for forecasting large sets of time series Forecasting large sets of time series with exogenous variables, including discussions of index models, partial least squares, and boosting. Introduction of modern procedures for modeling and forecasting spatio-temporal data Perfect for PhD students and researchers in business, economics, engineering, and science: Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data also belongs to the bookshelves of practitioners in these fields who hope to improve their understanding of statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing and forecasting big dependent data.

Bootstrapping is a conceptually simple statistical technique to increase the quality of estimates, conduct robustness checks and compute standard errors for virtually any statistic. This book provides an intelligible and compact introduction for students, scientists and practitioners. It not only gives a clear explanation of the underlying concepts but also demonstrates the application of bootstrapping using Python and Stata.

Master the fundamentals of SPSS with this newly updated and instructive resource The newly and thoroughly revised Second Edition of SPSS Essentials delivers a comprehensive guide for students in the social sciences who wish to learn how to use the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for the effective collection, management, and analysis of data. The accomplished researchers and authors provide readers with the practical nuts and bolts of SPSS usage and data entry, with a particular emphasis on managing and manipulating data. The book offers an introduction to SPSS, how to navigate it, and a discussion of how to understand the data the reader is working with. It also covers inferential statistics, including topics like hypothesis testing, one-sample Z-testing, T-testing, ANOVAs, correlations, and regression. Five unique appendices round out the text, providing readers with discussions of dealing with real-world data, troubleshooting, advanced data manipulations, and new workbook activities. SPSS Essentials offers a wide variety of features, including: A revised chapter order, designed to match the pacing and content of typical undergraduate statistics classes An explanation of when particular inferential statistics are appropriate for use, given the nature of the data being worked with Additional material on understanding your data sample, including discussions of SPSS output and how to find the most relevant information A companion website offering additional problem sets, complete with answers Perfect for undergraduate students of the social sciences who are just getting started with SPSS, SPSS Essentials also belongs on the bookshelves of advanced placement high school students and practitioners in social science who want to brush up on the fundamentals of this powerful and flexible software package.

Advances in Longitudinal Survey Methodology Explore an up-to-date overview of best practices in the implementation of longitudinal surveys from leading experts in the field of survey methodology Advances in Longitudinal Survey Methodology delivers a thorough review of the most current knowledge in the implementation of longitudinal surveys. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the many advances that have been made in the field of longitudinal survey methodology over the past fifteen years, as well as extending the topic coverage of the earlier volume, “Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys”, published in 2009. This new edited volume covers subjects like dependent interviewing, interviewer effects, panel conditioning, rotation group bias, measurement of cognition, and weighting. New chapters discussing the recent shift to mixed-mode data collection and obtaining respondents’ consent to data linkage add to the book’s relevance to students and social scientists seeking to understand modern challenges facing data collectors today. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough introduction to refreshment sampling for longitudinal surveys, including consideration of principles, sampling frame, sample design, questionnaire design, and frequency An exploration of the collection of biomarker data in longitudinal surveys, including detailed measurements of ill health, biological pathways, and genetics in longitudinal studies An examination of innovations in participant engagement and tracking in longitudinal surveys, including current practices and new evidence on internet and social media for participant engagement. An invaluable source for post-graduate students, professors, and researchers in the field of survey methodology, Advances in Longitudinal Survey Methodology will also earn a place in the libraries of anyone who regularly works with or conducts longitudinal surveys and requires a one-stop reference for the latest developments and findings in the field.

Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting, Second Edition contends that a true scientific method which includes experimentation, observation, and constant questioning must be applied to supply chains to achieve excellence in demand forecasting. This second edition adds more than 45 percent extra content with four new chapters including an introduction to neural networks and the forecast value added framework. Part I focuses on statistical "traditional" models, Part II, on machine learning, and the all-new Part III discusses demand forecasting process management. The various chapters focus on both forecast models and new concepts such as metrics, underfitting, overfitting, outliers, feature optimization, and external demand drivers. The book is replete with do-it-yourself sections with implementations provided in Python (and Excel for the statistical models) to show the readers how to apply these models themselves. This hands-on book, covering the entire range of forecasting—from the basics all the way to leading-edge models—will benefit supply chain practitioners, forecasters, and analysts looking to go the extra mile with demand forecasting. Events around the book Link to a De Gruyter Online Event in which the author Nicolas Vandeput together with Stefan de Kok, supply chain innovator and CEO of Wahupa; Spyros Makridakis, professor at the University of Nicosia and director of the Institute For the Future (IFF); and Edouard Thieuleux, founder of AbcSupplyChain, discuss the general issues and challenges of demand forecasting and provide insights into best practices (process, models) and discussing how data science and machine learning impact those forecasts. The event will be moderated by Michael Gilliland, marketing manager for SAS forecasting software: https://youtu.be/1rXjXcabW2s

Delve into the art of time series forecasting with the comprehensive power of Facebook Prophet. This tool enables users to develop precise forecasting models with simplicity and effectiveness. Through this book, you'll explore Prophet's core functionality and advanced configurations, equipping yourself with the knowledge to proficiently model and predict data trends. What this Book will help me do Build intuitive and effective forecasting models using Facebook Prophet. Understand the role and implementation of seasonality and holiday effects in time series data. Identify and address outliers and special data events effectively. Optimize forecasts using advanced techniques like hyperparameter tuning and additional regressors. Evaluate and deploy forecasting models in production settings for practical applications. Author(s) Greg Rafferty is a seasoned data science professional with extensive experience in time series forecasting. Having worked on diverse forecasting projects, Greg brings a unique perspective that integrates practicality and depth. His approachable writing style makes complex topics accessible and actionable. Who is it for? This book is tailored for data scientists, analysts, and developers seeking to enhance their forecasting capabilities using Python. If you have a grounding in Python and a basic understanding of forecasting principles, you will find this book a valuable resource to sharpen your expertise and achieve new forecasting precision.

Discover new theoretical connections between stochastic phenomena and the structure of natural language with this powerful volume! Information Theory Meets Power Laws: Stochastic Processes and Language Models presents readers with a novel subtype of a probabilistic approach to language, which is based on statistical laws of texts and their analysis by means of information theory. The distinguished author insightfully and rigorously examines the linguistic and mathematical subject matter while eschewing needlessly abstract and superfluous constructions. The book begins with a less formal treatment of its subjects in the first chapter, introducing its concepts to readers without mathematical training and allowing those unfamiliar with linguistics to learn the book’s motivations. Despite its inherent complexity, Information Theory Meets Power Laws: Stochastic Processes and Language Models is a surprisingly approachable treatment of idealized mathematical models of human language. The author succeeds in developing some of the theory underlying fundamental stochastic and semantic phenomena, like strong nonergodicity, in a way that has not previously been seriously attempted. In doing so, he covers topics including: Zipf’s and Herdan’s laws for natural language Power laws for information, repetitions, and correlations Markov, finite-state,and Santa Fe processes Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of probability Ergodic decomposition, Kolmogorov complexity, and universal coding Theorems about facts and words Information measures for fields Rényi entropies, recurrence times, and subword complexity Asymptotically mean stationary processes Written primarily for mathematics graduate students and professionals interested in information theory or discrete stochastic processes, Information Theory Meets Power Laws: Stochastic Processes and Language Models also belongs on the bookshelves of doctoral students and researchers in artificial intelligence, computational and quantitative linguistics as well as physics of complex systems.

Master the fundamentals of regression without learning calculus with this one-stop resource The newly and thoroughly revised 3rd Edition of Applied Regression Modeling delivers a concise but comprehensive treatment of the application of statistical regression analysis for those with little or no background in calculus. Accomplished instructor and author Dr. Iain Pardoe has reworked many of the more challenging topics, included learning outcomes and additional end-of-chapter exercises, and added coverage of several brand-new topics including multiple linear regression using matrices. The methods described in the text are clearly illustrated with multi-format datasets available on the book's supplementary website. In addition to a fulsome explanation of foundational regression techniques, the book introduces modeling extensions that illustrate advanced regression strategies, including model building, logistic regression, Poisson regression, discrete choice models, multilevel models, Bayesian modeling, and time series forecasting. Illustrations, graphs, and computer software output appear throughout the book to assist readers in understanding and retaining the more complex content. Applied Regression Modeling covers a wide variety of topics, like: Simple linear regression models, including the least squares criterion, how to evaluate model fit, and estimation/prediction Multiple linear regression, including testing regression parameters, checking model assumptions graphically, and testing model assumptions numerically Regression model building, including predictor and response variable transformations, qualitative predictors, and regression pitfalls Three fully described case studies, including one each on home prices, vehicle fuel efficiency, and pharmaceutical patches Perfect for students of any undergraduate statistics course in which regression analysis is a main focus, Applied Regression Modeling also belongs on the bookshelves of non-statistics graduate students, including MBAs, and for students of vocational, professional, and applied courses like data science and machine learning.

  This book is a collective volume authored by leading scientists in the field of stochastic modelling, associated statistical topics and corresponding applications. The main classes of stochastic processes for dependent data investigated throughout this book are Markov, semi-Markov, autoregressive and piecewise deterministic Markov models. The material is divided into three parts corresponding to: (i) Markov and semi-Markov processes, (ii) autoregressive processes and (iii) techniques based on divergence measures and entropies. A special attention is payed to applications in reliability, survival analysis and related fields.

The book will discuss the statistical methods involved, covers the development of academic writing skills for a higher impact, teaches learning theories, and uses a structured and holistic approach for educational research proposal development.

Essential Statistics for Non-STEM Data Analysts is your comprehensive guide to mastering the statistical concepts needed for data science. By working through real-world datasets and Python-based examples, you'll learn how to interpret data and build insightful analyses. This book demystifies statistics, making it accessible to anyone aiming to become proficient in data analysis. What this Book will help me do Learn how to preprocess, clean, and prepare data for analysis using Python. Master the foundations of statistical methods such as hypothesis testing and probability theory. Develop skills to interpret and explain statistical results in the context of data science. Understand how statistical concepts apply to machine learning tasks like classification and regression. Build confidence in statistical principles to tackle interviews and enhance your career prospects. Author(s) None Li is an experienced data scientist and educator with a strong focus on making abstract statistical concepts intuitive and applicable. With a background in designing data science curriculums, None has a passion for teaching statistics to individuals from diverse and often non-mathematical backgrounds. Through clear explanations and practical examples, None aims to empower everyone to excel in data analysis and machine learning. Who is it for? This book caters specifically to data analysts, data science enthusiasts, and developers eager to enhance their statistical knowledge. It's crafted for readers transitioning into data science who may lack a strong mathematical or statistics background. If you have a basic grasp of Python programming and a keen interest in understanding how to work effectively with data, this book is a perfect fit. Beginners and students aiming to familiarize themselves with statistical foundations for data-oriented careers will greatly benefit from this resource.

This book includes discussions related to solutions of such tasks as: probabilistic description of the investment function; recovering the income function from GDP estimates; development of models for the economic cycles; selecting the time interval of pseudo-stationarity of cycles; estimating characteristics/parameters of cycle models; analysis of accuracy of model factors. All of the above constitute the general principles of a theory explaining the phenomenon of economic cycles and provide mathematical tools for their quantitative description. The introduced theory is applicable to macroeconomic analyses as well as econometric estimations of economic cycles.

Apply statistics in business to achieve performance improvement Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance, 3rd Edition helps managers understand the role of statistics in implementing business improvements. It guides professionals who are learning statistics in order to improve performance in business and industry. It also helps graduate and undergraduate students understand the strategic value of data and statistics in arriving at real business solutions. Instruction in the book is based on principles of effective learning, established by educational and behavioral research. The authors cover both practical examples and underlying theory, both the big picture and necessary details. Readers gain a conceptual understanding and the ability to perform actionable analyses. They are introduced to data skills to improve business processes, including collecting the appropriate data, identifying existing data limitations, and analyzing data graphically. The authors also provide an in-depth look at JMP software, including its purpose, capabilities, and techniques for use. Updates to this edition include: A new chapter on data, assessing data pedigree (quality), and acquisition tools Discussion of the relationship between statistical thinking and data science Explanation of the proper role and interpretation of p-values (understanding of the dangers of “p-hacking”) Differentiation between practical and statistical significance Introduction of the emerging discipline of statistical engineering Explanation of the proper role of subject matter theory in order to identify causal relationships A holistic framework for variation that includes outliers, in addition to systematic and random variation Revised chapters based on significant teaching experience Content enhancements based on student input This book helps readers understand the role of statistics in business before they embark on learning statistical techniques.

The fun and friendly guide to mastering IBM’s Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Written by an author team with a combined 55 years of experience using SPSS, this updated guide takes the guesswork out of the subject and helps you get the most out of using the leader in predictive analysis. Covering the latest release and updates to SPSS 27.0, and including more than 150 pages of basic statistical theory, it helps you understand the mechanics behind the calculations, perform predictive analysis, produce informative graphs, and more. You’ll even dabble in programming as you expand SPSS functionality to suit your specific needs. Master the fundamental mechanics of SPSS Learn how to get data into and out of the program Graph and analyze your data more accurately and efficiently Program SPSS with Command Syntax Get ready to start handling data like a pro—with step-by-step instruction and expert advice!

Learn the concepts of time series from traditional to bleeding-edge techniques. This book uses comprehensive examples to clearly illustrate statistical approaches and methods of analyzing time series data and its utilization in the real world. All the code is available in Jupyter notebooks. You'll begin by reviewing time series fundamentals, the structure of time series data, pre-processing, and how to craft the features through data wrangling. Next, you'll look at traditional time series techniques like ARMA, SARIMAX, VAR, and VARMA using trending framework like StatsModels and pmdarima. The book also explains building classification models using sktime, and covers advanced deep learning-based techniques like ANN, CNN, RNN, LSTM, GRU and Autoencoder to solve time series problem using Tensorflow. It concludes by explaining the popular framework fbprophet for modeling time series analysis. After reading Hands-On Time Series Analysis with Python, you'll be able to apply these new techniques in industries, such as oil and gas, robotics, manufacturing, government, banking, retail, healthcare, and more. What You'll Learn: · Explains basics to advanced concepts of time series · How to design, develop, train, and validate time-series methodologies · What are smoothing, ARMA, ARIMA, SARIMA,SRIMAX, VAR, VARMA techniques in time series and how to optimally tune parameters to yield best results · Learn how to leverage bleeding-edge techniques such as ANN, CNN, RNN, LSTM, GRU, Autoencoder to solve both Univariate and multivariate problems by using two types of data preparation methods for time series. · Univariate and multivariate problem solving using fbprophet. Who This Book Is For Data scientists, data analysts, financial analysts, and stock market researchers